2024 Hurricane Season

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be highly active, with various sources predicting an above-average number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. According to AccuWeather, the season could be a “blockbuster” with the potential for a very active year due to warm sea surface temperatures and the development of a La Niña. They predict an ominous season with 20 storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes at Category 3 or higher, with an increased probability of major hurricanes making landfall in the U.S.

Colorado State University (CSU) researchers also forecast an extremely active season, calling for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. CSU researchers highlight the importance of warm water temperature anomalies and the transition to La Niña conditions in the forecast.

The University of Pennsylvania’s Earth and Environmental Science (EES) scientists predict a total of 33.1 +/- 5.8 named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range of 27 to 39 storms. This forecast is based on the assumption of a moderate La Niña condition and average North Atlantic Oscillation conditions.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts a transition from El Niño to La Niña by the heart of the hurricane season, which would decrease wind shear and enhance storm development.

Overall, these predictions suggest that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be very active, with a higher-than-average number of storms and hurricanes, posing a significant threat to the U.S. mainland and the Caribbean.